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Market Overview – Preventive Rate Cut Fuels Risk Appetite
On Thursday, U.S. equities closed at fresh record highs: the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 all rallied. The market rapidly shifted from post-Fed uncertainty to a “preventive easing” narrative:
- Policy consensus: Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan now expect a near-certain October rate cut; JPM targets the S&P 500 above 7,000 by year-end.
- Labor strength: Weekly jobless claims fell to 231k, the biggest drop in four years, reinforcing confidence in a soft landing.
- Liquidity tailwind: With the Fed restarting its rate-cut cycle, $7.2 trillion of money-market assets is rotating into equities.
NVIDIA–Intel Partnership Ignites Semiconductor Rally
- Headline deal: NVIDIA will invest $5 B in Intel at $23.28/share (above the U.S. government’s $20.47 cost), taking a stake >4%. They will jointly develop PC and data-center solutions: Intel integrates NVIDIA GPU technology and designs custom x86 CPUs.
- Market reaction: Intel shares surged 23%, breaking the $20–25 base and setting $23–24 as new support. Semiconductor peers (ASML, Applied Materials) jumped, pushing the PHLX Semiconductor Index to record highs.
- Industry impact: Intel gains “government + NVIDIA” backing, shifting from solo player to semi-public partner. NVIDIA strengthens its ecosystem dominance through technology licensing.
Tech Giants & Supply Chain Moves
- AMD: Initially down 5% on competitive fears, recovered late but faces structural pressure as PC/data-center share risks rise.
- TSMC: Brief dip on speculation of Intel capacity shift, but rebounded—its 3nm/2nm process leadership keeps it the safer long-term foundry bet.
- ARM: Remains weak; mobile/PC server share concerns weigh, though its broad IP licensing model preserves long-term growth.
Technical View – High-Level Doji Signals Near-Term Pause
- Nasdaq 100 & S&P 500: Gapped higher, closed with doji candles, suggesting short-term profit-taking after strong gains.
- Liquidity and the Fed’s dovish trajectory still support the uptrend, but a brief consolidation is likely.
Hot Sectors
Cybersecurity Surge
- Nesco (NESCP): IPO jumped 18.4% to $22.5 on 29.9% YoY revenue growth and narrowing losses.
- CrowdStrike (CRWD): Broke toward July highs after launching an AI-driven threat-intel platform; analysts lifted targets.
- Rubrik (RBRK): Whipsawed but holds its 200-day; 14 of 17 analysts rate “Buy,” avg target $111.5.
Blockchain Volatility
- Figure (FIGS): +16% after yesterday’s shakeout; momentum high but fundamentals must confirm.
- Bullish: Posted Q2 net profit $108 M (vs. loss a year ago) but relies on one-offs; core revenue slightly down.
Outlook
The liquidity bull market continues with the Fed expected to cut another 50 bps this year and fiscal stimulus in play.
- Near term: Watch semiconductor dynamics (Intel–NVIDIA progress, AMD share, TSMC moat), cybersecurity AI adoption (CrowdStrike), and blockchain profitability tests.
- Medium term: Core themes remain AI, semiconductors, cybersecurity, and high-dividend quality assets as both defense and offense.
