On July 11, the U.S. equity market continued its recent consolidation pattern, closing with modest losses yet displaying underlying strength. The S&P 500 declined by 0.33% (-20.71 points), while the Nasdaq slipped 0.22% (-45.14 points). Notably, both indexes posted positive intraday reversals, closing higher than their opening levels—forming another “small-bodied bullish candle”, or what technicians often describe as a small bullish continuation bar.
This marks the third consecutive session of such candlesticks, reinforcing a classic “grinding bull” structure. Meanwhile, Bitcoin surged to a new record above $110,000, Trump reignited tariff threats, and the Fed's rate path remains a key market variable—all introducing further macro complexities for the second half of the year.
I. Market Structure: The “Slow-Bull” Signature of Narrow-Range Bullish Closes
Although the headline indices closed slightly lower, price action was far from bearish. The S&P 500 dipped intraday but quickly recovered, closing with a small bullish candle. The Nasdaq followed suit. This ongoing pattern of alternating narrow bullish and bearish candles, combined with a steady upward slope in moving averages, suggests a classic slow-accumulation bull trend.
Unless a large directional candle (a wide-range breakout or breakdown) disrupts this equilibrium, mean-reverting flows and incremental buying pressure may continue to dominate short-term price action.
Risk appetite remains elevated—evidenced by Bitcoin’s parabolic rise. From 10,000 BTC buying two pizzas in 2010 (then worth ~$25), to a single Bitcoin trading above $110,000 today, the 15-year return exceeds 40 million percent. Laszlo Hanyecz, who made that historic pizza purchase, likely never imagined his lunch would become a $10 billion anecdote.
This bull run in Bitcoin also offers three key lessons on exponential wealth creation:
- Risk capital is essential: Early investors were willing to lose everything—only risk-tolerant capital survives long holding periods.
- Patience pays: 10–15 years is the holding period for both crypto and long-term tech outperformers (e.g., Apple, Nvidia).
- Early entry matters: Buying Nvidia at $1 or Tesla at $2 is history. Late entrants chasing price often end up as exit liquidity.
II. Trump’s Tariff 2.0: A Game of Negotiation and Fiscal Politics
One of the week’s most watched developments is Trump’s renewed tariff rhetoric—labeled “Reciprocal Tariffs 2.0.” While reminiscent of April’s policy posturing, the new measures are broader in scope and targeted toward countries with lower U.S. import dependency. Still, Canada (threatened with 35% tariffs), China, and the EU are on the radar.
Key insights:
- Vietnam as a transshipment target: A 40% tariff on selected Vietnamese goods (including those re-exported from China) could effectively bypass trade deals, resulting in steep implicit duties on Chinese goods.
- Fiscal gains are evident: June customs duties reached $27.2B (+300% YoY), bringing FY2025’s total to $113.3B—an all-time high.
- Policy as soft coercion: Trump’s justifications vary wildly—from illegal migration in Canada to “de-dollarization” in BRICS. But the real intent is clear: extracting concessions or generating revenue.
Market reaction has been relatively muted—possibly because traders have priced in a replay of previous tariff cycles. However, if negotiations stall, the inflationary impact from tariffs may delay Fed rate cuts, compressing risk asset valuations.
III. Fed Rate Cut Outlook: Political Pressure Meets Data-Dependent Policy
While Trump continues to pressure for aggressive rate cuts, the Fed remains data-dependent. Still, political signals are worth noting.
This week, the White House launched an investigation into the Fed’s $1.9B renovation plan for its headquarters. Already $700M over budget, the project was criticized as “lavish,” costing $1,923 per square foot—twice the norm for federal buildings. The move is widely interpreted as a soft maneuver to accelerate policy easing.
Although Powell’s term runs until 2026, the administration could nominate a new Chair by year-end to assume office in 2027. The combination of subdued inflation and resilient labor data suggests a rate cut may arrive post-September, likely in a measured fashion.
IV. Stock Highlights: Nvidia Hits $4T, Tesla Diverges Technically and Fundamentally
1. Nvidia: First $4 Trillion Market Cap in U.S. History
- Nvidia closed above $4T this week, driven by:
- Unrelenting AI demand: Sovereign AI investment and enterprise cloud upgrades are securing long-term orders.
- Strong earnings anticipation: Upcoming financial results may affirm sustained AI tailwinds.
CEO insider selling: Jensen Huang sold 225,000 shares this week ($36.4M); he plans to sell up to 6M shares by year-end. Despite the selling, his net worth now surpasses Warren Buffett’s, and fundamentals remain intact.
2. Semiconductor Divergence: Broadcom Leads, AMD Rebounds
Goldman Sachs remains bullish on Broadcom (ASIC leader for AI infrastructure), while downgrading AMD. Still, AMD has rebounded over 50% from recent lows, and some analysts believe it could challenge the $200 level if momentum persists.
3. Google: Regulatory Risks Create a Valuation Gap
The Department of Justice is pushing for a forced breakup of Chrome, and OpenAI is launching a rival browser. This dual threat—antitrust and AI competition—poses headline risk. Yet the stock trades at a depressed valuation, offering potential upside if AI-driven search or ad revenue surprises to the upside.
4. Tesla: Technically Resilient, Fundamentally Mixed
Tesla closed the week at $313.51, up modestly. Technical structure remains constructive—price held above the 300 support zone, with a short-term rebound likely. However, fundamental tailwinds are lacking:
- Positives: New showroom to open in Mumbai next week (though 70% import tariffs remain); Grok AI’s integration into X (Twitter) has received favorable feedback; potential demand pull-forward from a $7,500 EV tax credit that expires in September.
- Negatives: Q2 earnings may show revenue and margin contraction; no sustainable pricing power in sight.
Bottom line: Tesla’s chart setup is strong—but conviction for long-term investment remains weak.
Final Thoughts: Navigating the “Slow Bull” with Patience and Discipline
July 11 reinforced the current market theme: a “slow-burn bull” driven by strong internals but facing external macro risks. From Bitcoin’s exponential rally to Nvidia’s AI-driven surge, this market rewards early conviction and long-term patience.
Looking ahead to H2 2025, investors should monitor three key thematic trades:
- Rate-cut beneficiaries: Homebuilders and home improvement retailers
- AI infrastructure: Chipmakers like Broadcom and Nvidia
- Policy arbitrage: Exporters and sectors positioned to benefit from global trade recalibration
In slow-moving bull markets, holding quality positions often beats chasing short-term breakouts.
