I. Index Summary: Semis Outperform; “Data vs. Policy” Becomes the Core Narrative
On Monday, September 8, U.S. equities finished mixed-to-higher with semiconductors leading and the Nasdaq printing an intraday all-time high. Liquidity was thin as investors focused on Tuesday’s annual payrolls benchmark revision and Thursday’s CPI.
- S&P 500: +0.18% (doji close; standoff between bulls and bears).
- Nasdaq: +0.30%.
- Dow: −0.06%.
Chip leadership: NVIDIA, AMD and broader AI compute names advanced on the long-duration AI demand narrative rather than any direct benefit from former President Trump’s UK visit.
Trump in the UK: Trump traveled with tech leaders (NVIDIA’s Jensen Huang, Apple’s Tim Cook, OpenAI’s Sam Altman, among others) to pursue deals; the SOX rose only modestly (<3%), suggesting muted immediate impact.
Positioning/technicals: - S&P 500 printed a small doji (indecision).
- BofA Bull & Bear at 5.9 (neutral).
- Hedge funds increased S&P 500 futures shorts to a record $180bn notional, likely hedges against near-term pullbacks.
II. Macro & Policy: Rate-Cut Odds vs. Sticky Inflation
Two prints will shape the September Fed path and year-end stance.
1.NFP Benchmark Revision — the Dove’s Litmus Test
- Expectations: A sizable downward revision (~−800k) to prior nonfarm totals (Aug headline previously +22k); unemployment 4.3% (low by history); average hourly earnings flat m/m, +3.7% y/y.
- Implications: A larger-than-expected cut would cement a 25 bp cut in September and revive October −25 bp bets; a mild revision could weigh on high-valuation tech.
2.CPI — Arbiter of “Sticky” Core
- Preview: Headline CPI seen 2.9% y/y (0.3% m/m) vs. 2.7%; core sticky but moderate.
- Risk: Newly imposed U.S. tariffs on EU/Japan/India may begin to pass through. A >3% headline would dent confidence and re-price risk.
3.Long-End Yields & YCC Watch
- Setup: 30-year yields spiked globally in early Sept (Europe most acute) before U.S. weak labor prints pulled them back.
- Structural backdrop: Swelling sovereign debt (e.g., the UK’s 2073 debt/GDP projection >200%) and fiscal gaps rekindle debate over yield curve control (YCC) as a de-facto stealth QE to cap term rates and stabilize equities. If the White House gains greater sway over the Fed, YCC could return to the toolkit.
III. Sectors & Stocks: Divergence Widens—AI and Speculation Run in Parallel
1.Tech Core: AI Chips & Rotational Trades
NVIDIA ecosystem: Still the compute fulcrum, but investors are mining “white-glove” beneficiaries (e.g., AVGO, CRWV) sharing AI economics via partnerships.
Rotation within AI: Brokers selectively boost smaller AI stories (e.g., ALAB target hikes), while legacy chips (AMD, MRVL) are increasingly crowded/competitive and lag.
Apple & Tesla:
- Apple (AAPL): Slight dip into next week’s event; market wants AI-forward features.
- Tesla (TSLA): Softer U.S. August sales growth (+3.1% vs. industry +14%) pressures autos optics, but the market is reframing Tesla as AI + robotics, making pullbacks potential entries.
2.Consumer & Financials: Restaurants Falter; Risk-Off Creeps In
- Dining weakness: Benchmark flagged ongoing traffic softness; 3Q same-store sales likely below plan, with CMG probing lows.
- Banks: Labor softness weighed on money-center banks (e.g., JPM −3%).
- Insurance/UNH: UnitedHealth rose on premium increases (~6.5% employer / ~18% government), though tariff uncertainty lingers.
- Havens: Institutions are quietly adding gold/crypto; gold ETFs see renewed interest (CBs + allocators + tactical flows). Avoid chasing at highs.
3.Speculation & “Story Stocks”:
- Index-add pop: HOOD (+16%) and APP (breakout) on S&P 500 inclusion—watch for sell-the-news.
- Promotional runs: QS (+21%) and JUMIA continue squeeze-prone rallies.
- Ponzi-like red flags: OCTO spiked +3000% on token/celebrity hype; parallels drawn to BMNR’s headline tactics—high risk of rug-pull.
IV. China Equities: Liquidity-Led Decoupling
- Hong Kong: HSI +29% YTD, outpacing S&P 500 (+10.5%); hedge funds’ Aug net buying of ADRs/H-shares hit records. Low valuations + policy easing remain the spine of the trade.
- A-shares: Global active funds remain structurally underweight; Goldman sees P/E expansion to ~15.8x as positioning normalizes. Retail margin usage rising—expect bouts of profit-taking, but 6-month outlook constructive.
V. Strategy: Anchor on “Certainty” Amid Noise
- Near term (Sep–Oct): Position for data-driven swings; use dips to accumulate AI compute and select hedges (gold).
- Medium term: China equities stand to benefit from global re-allocation; in the U.S., favor self-funded growth where AI monetization is tangible.
- Risk controls: Respect valuation/earnings risk in crowded AI; avoid promotion-driven micro-caps.
Bottom line: We’re in a data vacuum meets policy-sensitive window. Volatility can rise, but the long-run arcs—policy turns, earnings verification, and global capital re-allocation—remain intact. Stay rational; own what you can underwrite.
