I. Market Overview: Indices Diverge, Tech Leads Rebound
On Wednesday, September 3, U.S. equities rebounded unevenly after Tuesday’s sharp sell-off. The S&P 500 rose +0.18%, the Nasdaq +0.30%, while the Dow slipped -0.06%. Bargain-hunting in tech stocks supported the S&P and Nasdaq, while weakness in cyclicals weighed on the Dow.
Intraday:
- Indices opened higher, driven by tech.
- Midday momentum faded before a sharp late-session rally lifted markets.
- Market breadth remained split, with gainers and decliners roughly balanced.
Technical signals:
- Nasdaq 100 gapped higher and closed with a doji candle, still below its 5-day MA.
- S&P 500 also gapped up, filled the gap, and finished with a doji.
- Overall, the market remains range-bound with no clear directional trend.
II. Key Data: Labor Market Cooling, NFP as September “Compass”
JOLTs: July job openings fell to 7.18M (est. 7.38M), the lowest since Sep 2023, signaling continued cooling in the labor market.
Implications: Together with softer inflation data, expectations for a Fed September rate cut strengthened.
Focus: Friday’s NFP (Sep 7) is pivotal.
- If payrolls <100k and unemployment rises to 4.3% (with possible downward revisions to prior months), markets may price in a 50bps cut.
- However, Sept/Oct seasonality (corporate buyback blackout, retail flows weakening) historically fuels volatility even in easing cycles.
III. Sectors & Stocks: Tech Supports, Event-Driven Moves Dominate
Tech Leaders – Google & Apple anchor markets
1.Google (GOOGL): +2%+, biggest index contributor.
- Won landmark antitrust case (not forced to divest Chrome).
- Expanded AI strategy: promoting in-house AI chips to smaller cloud providers (e.g., CoreWeave), directly challenging NVIDIA.
- Partnership expectations: continues ~$20B annual default search fee to Apple, potentially expanding AI collaboration.
2.Apple (AAPL): Modest gains ahead of Sep 9 product event. Historically “buy the rumor, sell the news.”
Software & Services – Mixed results
- Salesforce (CRM): Q2 revenue +9.8% (5th straight slowdown), weak Q3 guide. Announced $20B buyback, but stock fell post-earnings. CEO’s AI-driven “50% headcount cut” comment failed to impress.
- Figma (FIGMA): First earnings as public co. Revenue +41%, but 25% employee unlock triggered >20% after-hours drop. Lock-ups extend to 2026, short-term panic may be overdone.
- C3.ai (AI): Missed across the board, CEO replaced, FY guide withdrawn. Stock -15%+ AH.
Finance & Crypto – Volatility high
- Bullish (BLSH): -12.5%, near IPO price ($37). Compass Point rated Neutral ($45 target), highlighting $2.7B BTC reserves as medium-term optionality.
- Upstart (UPST): Compass Point reiterated Sell ($20 target). Stock fell sharply, potential support at $58–60.
Speculative “Meme Plays”
- ABTC (Bitcoin mining platform): Nasdaq debut surged >100% intraday before crashing, closing +16.5%. Trump family holds 98%. Seen as a politically tied “lottery ticket” stock with poor fundamentals.
Consumer & Pharma
- Restaurant Brands (QSR): Underperforming peers; -2.45% YTD. Sector pressured by rising costs, labor/migration issues. Stock at 50M MA support; small tracking position added.
- United Therapeutics (UTHR): After Tuesday’s +33% surge on successful Tyvaso lung therapy trial, stock retraced. Since IPO in 1998, UTHR rose ~40x, mkt cap $17B.
IV. Strategy & Market Context: September Volatility Risk
Seasonality: September is historically weak (buyback blackout, retail flow drop). This year’s Fed cut mid-month could alter timing (low may come earlier).
Rotation: Money moving from high-valuation AI/hardware into defensives, but tech still acting as market stabilizer.
Risks:
- VIX shorts at record highs = potential vol spike.
- AI sector under earnings pressure.
- NFP & CPI = key catalysts.
Strategy:
- Avoid chasing post-earnings pops (most fade quickly).
- Keep exposure light; wait for data clarity.
- Look for “oversold rebounds” in FIGMA (unlock panic) and UPST (shorted), but scale in at support.
- Focus on Sep 7 NFP and CPI to define Fed path.
Conclusion:
The Sep 3 rebound was more “technical repair” and “tech defense” than a trend reversal. With weak seasonality and Fed decisions looming, patience and discipline remain the optimal stance.
