I. Market Overview: NFP Miss Sparks Intraday Reversal
On Friday, September 5, U.S. equities staged a roller-coaster session. Pre-market, a much weaker-than-expected August nonfarm payrolls (+22k vs. +75k est.) fueled aggressive Fed rate cut bets, lifting futures. However, all three indices reversed after the open, erasing early gains and closing modestly lower.
- S&P 500: Hit a new intraday high but reversed into a mid-sized red candle, showing resistance near 6,550.
- Nasdaq: Narrowly avoided deeper losses thanks only to Broadcom’s surge.
- Market Tone: Sentiment cautious, with low volumes signaling lack of conviction.
II. Nonfarm Payrolls: Cooling but Not Collapsing, Cut Bets Surge
- Payrolls: +22k vs. +75k est. and +79k prior. Weakness concentrated in government & energy, partly offset by healthcare gains.
- Unemployment Rate: 4.3% (in line with est.), still historically low.
- Wages: +3.7% y/y (below 3.9% est.), flat m/m.
Market Impact:
- Reinforced expectations of a September Fed cut, with some now betting on another 25bps in October.
- Treasury yields tumbled (TLT +1.46%), homebuilders rallied.
- Next Tuesday’s Labor Department benchmark revision (rumored -800k jobs) could further intensify easing bets.
III. S&P 500 Technicals: Overbought, Near-Term Pullback Risk
- Resistance: 6,550 remains a firm ceiling unless backed by volume.
- Momentum: MACD histogram shrinking; 14-week RSI at 65 (neutral), but 6-week RSI at 74 (overbought).
- Outlook: Likely sideways-to-down into the Fed meeting, with profit-taking risk elevated.
IV. Stock & Sector Highlights
1.Broadcom (AVGO): The Lone Stabilizer
- Spiked on FT report of OpenAI partnership to design AI chips (TSMC 2026 production).
- CEO confirmed a $10B commitment from a top-four client, boosting FY26 revenue outlook.
- Lifted Nasdaq but capped AMD/NVIDIA upside as investors worried about market share erosion.
- Gains pared post-market as much of the “AI chip upside” had already been priced in.
2.NVIDIA (NVDA): Breaking Support, Strategy Intact
- Fell below $170 key support (next at $150). May stage technical bounce toward 10-day/1-month MAs.
- Strategy: “White-glove ecosystem” (SMCI, CRWV, Lambda) + Oracle & CoreWeave alliances to reinforce AI dominance.
3.AMD (AMD): Downgrade Pressure
- Seaport cut rating to Neutral, citing slower AI adoption and weaker conversion.
- Valuation rich (+145% from April lows), facing dual headwinds from NVIDIA’s moat and Broadcom’s entry.
4.Other Tech Movers:
- MRVL: Still weak post-earnings, overshadowed by AVGO.
- MSFT: Tensions with OpenAI, which is reportedly planning a job-matching platform competing with LinkedIn. Still reliant on MSFT cloud, but cracks emerging.
- PLTR: Stalled with 500x P/E; “topping” pattern saps momentum.
- LULU: Q2 miss (rev < est., EPS -5% y/y), second guidance cut, stock at 5.5-year low (200-month MA support).
- TSLA: Board proposes Musk’s $10T compensation package (equity-only, no salary), with long-term market cap goal of $8.5T (8x current).
5.Financials & AI Apps:
- JPM: -3% on softer jobs outlook; banks remain labor/credit sensitive.
- Samsara (IOT): +30% revenue y/y, raised guidance; stock still -4% YTD, reflecting cautious market.
6.Figma & IPOs:
- FIG: Ark Invest (Cathie Wood) bought 108k shares. Still pressured by unlock (employee shares hit today, -6.5% intraday before rebound). Risk of more selling.
- Upcoming IPOs: Klarna (BNPL), Gemini (crypto exchange), Figure (crypto lending). IPO appetite weak, most recent listings sold off quickly.
V. Strategy & Takeaways
Core Tension: NFP-driven rate cut bets vs. technical overbought conditions.
Action Plan:
- Avoid high-valuation, weak-trend names (AMD, MRVL).
- Watch for NVIDIA rebound trades from oversold levels.
- Stay patient ahead of late-September catalysts (Fed policy, buyback window closure, unlock overhang).
Conclusion:
September 5 was a tug-of-war between cooling labor data and stretched technicals. With seasonality weak and liquidity thinning, near-term pullbacks are likely — defensive positioning and focus on quality large-cap leaders remain prudent.
