U.S. officials anticipate that former President Donald Trump will demand additional concessions from the European Union in order to reach a trade agreement, potentially including a baseline tariff rate of 15% or higher. In response, EU member states are urging the European Commission to prepare strong countermeasures in case a deal cannot be reached before Trump’s self-imposed deadline of August 1.
Trump recently announced a trade agreement with Japan, stating that Japan would face a 15% reciprocal tariff instead of the previously threatened 25%. Following a meeting with Trump, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. reportedly secured a reduction in tariffs from 20% to 19%. Meanwhile, Canada has lowered its expectations regarding a near-term agreement.
Economists at Goldman Sachs now project that the U.S. baseline tariff rate could rise to 15%. President Trump has made it clear that when setting so-called reciprocal tariff rates ahead of the August 1 deadline, he will not consider rates below 15%, signaling a new floor for future tariff increases.
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